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Clade C included 12% of the dogs sampled and these were sister to two ancient dogs from the Bonn-Oberkassel cave (14,700 YBP) and the Kartstein cave (12,500 YBP) near Mechernich in Germany, with a common recent ancestor estimated to 16,000–24,000 YBP. Clade D contained sequences from 2 Scandinavian breeds (Jamthund, Norwegian Elkhound) and were sister to another 14,500 YBP wolf sequence also from the Kesserloch cave, with a common recent ancestor estimated to 18,300 YBP. Its branch is phylogenetically rooted in the same sequence as the “Altai dog” (not a direct ancestor). The data from this study indicated a European origin for dogs that was estimated at 18,800–32,100 years ago based on the genetic relationship of 78% of the sampled dogs with ancient canid specimens found in Europe. The data supports the hypothesis that dog domestication preceded the emergence of agriculture and was initiated close to the Last Glacial Maximum when hunter-gatherers preyed on megafauna.

The study found that three ancient Belgium canids (the 36,000 YBP “Goyet dog” cataloged as Canis species, along with Belgium 30,000 YBP and 26,000 years YBP cataloged as Canis lupus) formed an ancient clade that was the most divergent group. The study found that the skulls of the “Goyet dog” and the “Altai dog” had some dog-like characteristics and proposed that the may have represented an aborted domestication episode. If so, there may have been originally more than one ancient domestication event for dogs as there was for domestic pigs.

One theory is that domestication occurred during one of the five cold Heinrich events that occurred after the arrival of humans in West Europe 37 000, 29 000, 23 000, 16 500 and 12 000 YBP. The theory is that the extreme cold during one of these events caused humans to either shift their location, adapt through a breakdown in their culture and change of their beliefs, or adopt innovative approaches. The adoption of the large wolf/dog was an adaptation to this hostile environment.
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Evolution of the wolf
The domestic dog (Canis lupus familiaris) is the most widely abundant large carnivore.[142] Over the past million years, numerous wolf-like forms existed but their turnover has been high, and modern wolves are not the lineal ancestors of dogs.[140] Although research had suggested that dogs and wolves were genetically very close relatives, later phylogenetic analysis strongly supported the hypothesis that dogs and wolves are reciprocally monophylic taxa that form two sister clades.[143] This suggests that none of the modern wolf populations are related to the wolves that were first domesticated and the wolf ancestor of dogs is therefore presumed extinct.[143] Recent mitochondrial DNA analyses of ancient and modern gray wolf specimens supports a pattern of population reduction and turnover.[110][109] An alternate proposal is that during the ecological upheavals of the Late Pleistocene all of the remaining members of a dwindling lineage joined humans.[144]

In 2016, a study investigated for the first time the population subdivisions, demography, and the relationships of gray wolves based on their whole-genome sequences. The study indicated that the dog was a divergent subspecies of the gray wolf and was derived from a now-extinct ghost population of Late Pleistocene wolves, and the dog and the dingo are not separate species. The genome-wide phylogenetic tree indicated a genetic divergence between New World and Old World wolves, which was then followed by a divergence between the dog and Old World wolves 27,000YBP – 29,000 YBP. The dog forms a sister taxon with Eurasian gray wolves but not North American wolves. The dog had considerable pre-ancestry after its divergence from the Old World wolves before it separated into distinct lineages that are nearly as distinct from one another as they are from wolves. The study suggested that previous datings based on the divergence between wolves and coyotes of one million years ago using fossils of what appeared to be coyote-like specimens may not reflect the ancestry of the modern forms.

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